事業計画書のウラ話

あなたが、起業するために金融機関から借入れをしなければなりません。

しかし、何の『信用』のない人に『融資』してくれるのでしょうか?

その「信用」を勝ち取ってこそ、あなたの夢を叶えるスタートラインです。

いかに信用性のある『事業計画』が必要不可欠なのです。

どのように「返済」をしていくか?

本当に、「返済」していけるのか?

金融機関では、そこを見抜く『プロ集団』なのです。

「いい加減な」「適当な」そんな事業計画書では、信用してもらうのは至難です。

そこで、ちょっと『ウラ話』をしていこうと思います。


確定の数字と未知の数字

確定の数字は、工事費用や設備費用のように『見積書』に明記されています。

家賃などの賃貸物件についても『契約書』が取り交わします。

一方、未知の数字は、これから予測される備品購入費や、

売上げなどの、実際に開店してみないと分からない数字です。

確定しているものは変更できませんが、未知な部分は「イジる」ことができます

しかし、現実的に無理のある「数字」は、不信感を掻き立てるだけです。

そこで、現実的に信用させられる「数字」について、お話ししていきます。


店舗の設計

テナントが決まると、店舗の設計をお願いします。

数週間後、設計図が出来上がってきたら、まず『席数』を確認しましょう。

売上高=総客数✖客単価

これは、誰でも知っている公式です。

商売を営んでいく上で、売上げを上げることが利益に繋がります。

その売上げを上げるには、公式の通り『総客数』を増やすことです。

つまり、席数が多いか少ないかで、見込める総客数も決まります。

近年の居酒屋業界では、規模にもよりますが、

「1坪あたり1.2~1.5席の客席数」が望ましいです。


売上予測

まず、売上を予測するために必要な要素は『予測客単価』です。

一般的に、「一次会」「二次会」といわれていますが、

誰でも知っているように、一次会の客単価より二次会の客単価は低くなります。

つまり、1日の営業を前半・後半に分けて考えると、

前半⇒一次会、後半⇒二次会、と考えてもいいと思います。

私の実績に基づいて比較すると『二次会の客単価は、一次会の客単価の半分』です。

客単価を検討する際には、メニューの内容、価格、構成などが必要です。

つまり、何杯の飲料を飲んで、何種類の料理を注文してくれるか?

という検討を実際のメニューで予測しなければなりません。

一般的に大衆居酒屋であれば、客単価は4,000~5,000円です。

3,000~4,000円だと、30坪以上の広さがないと経営難になります。

客単価を操作したいならば、メニュー構成に力を入れましょう。

安価なメニューの方が、集客しやすいのではないか、と安易に考えてしまうと、

総客数が決まっているので、売上げを上げることは困難になります。

また、売上げが欲しいからといって、価格を上げたりしたならば、

お客様は非常に敏感なので、足が向かなくなってしまいます。

しかし、高価だった商品が少し安くなるなら、お客様は喜びます。

つまり、最初に安価な商売をしてしまったら、上げることは難しいのです。

次に、売上げを決めるもう一つの要素『総客数』を考える場合、

『満席率』『回転数』を検討します。

満席率とは、満席時にどれだけの客数なのか?ということです。

4名席で2名のお客様が利用していれば、満席率50%ということです。

これも、実績からお話しすると70%くらいです。

繁忙期には80%を超える場合もありますが、平均して考えましょう。

週末は75~80%見込んでも、大丈夫だと思います。

仮に、深夜営業もするのであれば、

深夜帯では30~40%、また週末でも40~50%です。

次に『回転数』とは、満席時で1回転、

更にお客様が入れ替わり満席になれば2回転ということです。

2回転するようになったら『繁盛店』と呼ばれることでしょう。

通常は1~1.2回転、多くても1.5回転です。


経費計画

売上げ計画が出来上がれば、あとは『利益』を出すために、

『経費』の数字をイジらなければなりません。

大きなポイントは『原価率』『人件費』です。

事業計画書で大切なことは、

『利益を確保し、無事に返済していける根拠』を示し、伝えることです。

居酒屋業界の原価率は、色々といわれていますが、

私の経験からすると、32~37%が妥当だろうと考えています。

原価率が低いということは、商品価値よりも高価になり「ぼったぐり商品」、

原価率が高いと、お客様は喜んでくれるが「利益が少ない商品」となります。

お客様が喜んでくれれば、お店は繁盛して連日忙しくなる一方、

どれだけ働いても、一向に儲からない商売になってしまいます。

次に『人件費』を考えてみましょう。

正社員は「働く」ことに責任感があり、安定したサービスができますが、

人件費は、決して安いとは言えません。

一方アルバイトは、学業などを優先するため、

必要な時期や時間に勤務してもらえる保証がありませんが、

人件費は低くなります。

つまり、どちらも一長一短あり、募集して集まる保証もありません。

人員を決定する際に大切なことは、お客様に満足してもらえるサービスです。

キッチンスタッフが少ないと、料理の提供時間がかかってしまいます。

ホールスタッフが少ないと、注文を伺えなかったりと不満を与えてしまいます。

まずは、前に検討した「満席率」から『時間帯別の適正人員数』を決めることです。

満席時に、ホールスタッフ1名が対応できる許容客数は、

12名までの1組、または少数の4組までだと、私は思います。

この許容客数は、経験で養われるサービス能力であり、

慣れれば慣れるほど、対応可能な客数は増やしていけます。

ベテランばかりではないので、これを越える客数を予測するならば、

複数スタッフの人員が必要になります。

キッチンは、スペースや設備の配置、仕込み方で変わります。

店舗の広さ10~15坪に対して、キッチンスタッフ1名だと思います。

事業計画書では、人件費率は30%を越えないように調整しましょう







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さいごに

資金調達のため、金融機関の『プロ』を相手に納得させることは、至難の業。

しかし、より正確的な「数字」を提示することができれば、

スムーズに融資を受けられるようになります。

現状、業績悪化で立て直しも困難と思われては、無理難題ですが、

あなたは、まだ実績もないが、未知の数字に向かう熱意があります。

ここでお話しした、予測売上げの計画はとても重要です。

総客席数が決まれば、いかに利益を残せる計画を立てるかが勝負です。

集客や狙う客単価を細かく調整することで、それを可能にします。

人件費についても、繁盛できる人員が揃い、且つ人件費を抑える計画が、

必ず『利益』をもたらすことでしょう。

分からないことがあれば、質問してください。

実践から培われた知識で、必ず問題解決をします。

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